NDIS REFORM: AHPA’s response to Minister Butler’s National Press Club Address
The detail will determine the impact for allied health NDIS providers
Today Minister Butler used his National Press Club address to announce the most significant structural reforms to the NDIS since the scheme began. The announced package targets annual growth reduction to a National Cabinet-agreed target of 5–6%, responding to advice from the scheme’s actuary that spending has blown out by $13billion over the next four years.
AHPA acknowledges the need for reform. A scheme growing at this rate is not sustainable, and public confidence in the NDIS depends on funds reaching the people the scheme was designed for. We support action on fraud and integrity.
However, the numbers are clear. Moving from 22% annual growth to 5–6% cannot be achieved through fraud prevention alone. Access will tighten, plans will be smaller and fewer people will qualify. The allied health sector will feel this directly, and the detail of how these changes are implemented will matter enormously.
Significant uncertainty remains. The legislation has not yet been tabled. The Technical Advisory Group that will define functional capacity assessments has not been constituted. The line between “essential critical care” and “capacity building daily activities” has not been drawn. For the allied health sector, the devil is entirely in that detail.
These reforms are arriving in waves – not as a single event. Some are already in motion. Others are months or years away. For providers and participants alike, the challenge is navigating change that is real, immediate and still partially undefined.
AHPA will continue to work with government to build an NDIS that is equitable, consistent, and financially responsible. That means targeting reform where the evidence points, protecting participants with lifelong disability, ensuring pricing reflects the true cost of care, and preserving the workforce that makes the Scheme work.
Key takeaways for allied health NDIS providers
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Consultation on differentiated pricing for unregistered providers delivering social civic and community participation, capacity building activities and assisted daily living to commence.
Responsibility for pricing decisions transferred to the Minister for Disability and the NDIS. The NDIA currently set the pricing rules and maximum price limits for allied health therapy supports under the NDIS.
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Minister Butler will introduce new legislation to Parliament in Budget week to:
Enable standardised, evidence-based assessments of a person’s functional capacity to determine access to the Scheme.
Remove diagnosis lists to enable access to be based upon a significant reduction in a person’s functional capacity that impacts their day-to-day living.
Tighten the criteria around unscheduled reassessment requests.
End plan rollovers and stop unspent funds being rolled over to ensure plans align with reasonable and necessary decision making.
Transfer responsibility for pricing decisions to the Minister for Disability and the NDIS.
Allied health NDIS providers should note that tighter criteria for unscheduled plan reassessments will commence 7 days following approval by the Governor-General which could be as early as June 2026.
We understand a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) will be established to provide advice to government on an appropriate threshold and assessments for substantially reduced functional capacity and engage with the communities and states and territories. Work of the TAG is expected to be completed by the end 2026.
Inclusion of allied health and participants in the TAG is critical to the design and development of an assessment tool that assesses a person's functional capacity and then determines their access into the Scheme.
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New Framework Planning will now commence on 1 April 2026 instead of July this year.
AHPA has called for and supports this delay.
Under the proposed new approach, a Support Needs Assessment will be carried out to determine a participant’s budget and their eligibility to access therapy supports provided by allied health professionals. Getting this process right will be extremely important and is a key focus for AHPA and the allied health peak associations.
Read AHPA’s submission on New Framework Planning.
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Butler was explicit: the scheme currently has 760,000 participants, and modelling targets a reduction to around 600,000 by the end of the decade.
The driver is a shift away from diagnosed-based access (‘access lists’) towards standardised, evidence-based functional capacity assessments. In Butler’s words, the diagnosis gateway “has funnelled people onto a scheme that was never designed for them.”
ALSO
Spending on social and community participation will be reset to 2025 levels, reducing the average plan spend from $31,000 to $26,000 over two years.
Reductions in plan budgets will appear larger due to differences in plan utilisation.
The ambitious target to reduce the annual growth trajectory to a Cabinet-agreed target of 5–6% doesn’t happen by tackling fraud alone. AHPA is concerned that achievement of this target will come from a reduction in both participant volume and plan expenditure.
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Expansion of mandatory provider registration particularly for higher-risk supports, will commence from July 2027, with full implementation by the end of 2030.
This will impact some allied health NDIS providers and warrants further clarification as to what this means for allied health in the longer term.
AHPA continues to engage in consultations regarding mandatory registration.
Read AHPA’s submission on Getting is Right: A New Definition for NDIS Providers.
Key dates and deadlines
Now–ongoing Plan reviews are already reflecting new budget settings ahead of formal legislative changes. Paediatric participant plans are being reduced ahead of Thriving Kids rollout.
May–June 2026 Budget sittings Minister Butler will introduce proposed new legislation during Budget week.
1 July 2026 Mandatory registration begins for Supported Independent Living (SIL) providers and platform providers | Uplift to NDIS claims and payment systems commences and will be rolled out by end of 2030.
1 October 2026 Participant support budgets for social, civic and community participation supports and capacity building daily activities begin progressive adjustment. This is the most directly relevant date for allied health providers. Implemented under existing planning arrangements, ahead of new framework planning.
October 2026–January 2028 Thriving Kids rollout. Children under nine with mild-to-moderate developmental delay or autism transition from NDIS to the new Thriving Kids program. New Medicare allied health items introduced for this cohort (pricing and out-of-pocket details still to be confirmed).
End-December 2026 Recommendations expected from work of newly established Technical Advisory Group.
1 April 2027 New Framework Planning commences (delayed from July 2026). More constrained, standardised plan budgets introduced across the scheme.
July 2027 Expansion of provider registration with full implementation by the end of 2030.
2030 NDIS participant numbers projected to reduce from 760,000 to approximately 600,000. Scheme spending held to ~$55 billion instead of projected ~$70 billion. Annual growth rate returns to 5% from this point.
Media inquiries: AHPA CEO Bronwyn Morris-Donovan is available for comment.
Email: communications@ahpa.com.au